Scoop Election 08: edited by Gordon Campbell

On a White Paper that puts us back into the ANZUS club

November 3rd, 2010

The purpose of a Defence White Paper is to inform the public about how the government plans to arm and use the armed forces to enhance our security and strategic interests – while at the same time, telling our allies and neighbours (friendly or otherwise) just how New Zealand sees the world. On every count, this much-delayed report (originally due at the end of March) is a letdown. Anyone looking to this document for the clarity, independence and intellectual rigour that Derek Quigley brought to the Defence Beyond 2000 review eleven years ago will be disappointed. Yes, every item on the agenda gets a mention, but details, priorities, coherence? Not so much.

The Strategic Outlook Until 2025 section in particular, barely rises above the level of a fourth form geography essay. Does New Zealand think China or the US will be the dominant military power in the Pacific over the next two decades? Well, the White Paper thinks China will become more powerful economically and militarily, while the United States – though remaining the world’s leading military and economic power – will become less directly engaged in the region, and may be looking to its regional allies to make a greater contribution. End of analysis. And how might we strike a balance in our dealings with these two great powers – and would cozying up to Australia be a help or a hindrance to us forging our own links with the Chinese? Evidently, such matters were far too difficult for our Defence boffins to even hazard a guess.

Yet that surely, is the issue. Do we plan to treat China’s rise in military capability as inherently expansionist and hegemonic, or as mainly defensive in nature? Last year, the Australian government’s own White Paper succeeded in enraging the Chinese by focusing on China’s naval build-up in the Pacific, and on the threat to stability this was seen to represent. So when in this document we call Australia ‘our principal defence and security partner’ (para 1.10) and say that we think (para 2.21) it is ‘in our interest to add to Australia’s strategic weight’ and even that we envisage ( para 3.38 ) “ combining with it in an extra-regional conflict’ we seem tone deaf to the diplomatic signals that we are sending..

Superficially, this dog whistling (and friendly tail wagging) to our old ANZUS allies is the most striking thing about the White Paper. In a misty-eyed resurrection of the neo-colonial past, the document talks about fostering bilateral relations with ‘like-minded’ states…grounded in common traditions, experience and values..” Lest there is any doubt who we are talking about, the White Paper lists them (2.18) as Australia, the US, the United Kingdom and Canada.” New Zealand describes itself as “ an engaged, active and stalwart partner of the US” and (most alarmingly) the document adds that our relationships with ‘like-minded states’ should be ‘made concrete with the sharing of risk in operations around the world.’

In other words, the sharing of risk with our old imperial allies is depicted as an obligation that we must shoulder, as part and parcel of our existing ties. Hard to see the difference between this and the old ‘where Britain goes, so goes the Empire.’ Stance. Given this mindset of dutiful subservience to the ‘sharing of risk in operations around the globe’ it seems obvious that the Key government would have made New Zealand part of the coalition of the willing in the invasion of Iraq – with all the attendant ‘risks’ from terrorism that this would have entailed, and despite the related negative impacts on our trade and diplomatic efforts across the Middle East, and beyond. Such a stance might be tolerable if there were some balancing expressions of the need for independence, and some sign that we intend to define and pursue our own strategic interests – but such expressions are noticeably absent from a White Paper that reads just like an ANZUS- era document. The tone is subservient, the language is of dependence and obligation.

Does New Zealand intend to manage the impact that closer dancing with the Australian military will have on our relationship with China, which is already one of our key trading partners? I’m not saying that we should let China’s responses dictate our defence policy. I’m just saying that there should be some evidence in this document of how we intend to carry out a balancing act that is manifestly in our own best interests – first to keep us out of wars where we have no strategic interest off our own at stake, and secondly, to avoid looking like the member of a posse put together by the budding neo-colonial sheriff in the Pacific region. Can such deference to Australia (and beyond, to the US and the UK) really be in our best trade and diplomatic interests for the next 25 years? We seem to be walking backwards into the future.

The hardware. To the Key government’s clear relief, its predecessor essentially re-equipped the armed forces with almost everything on the military’s wishlist. Therefore, no big ticket items need to be bought in the next couple of years – and the White Paper dodges giving any specifics beyond that point. Instead, it postpones all the details until the Defence Review in 2015, at least. It says the C130 Hercules won’t have to be replaced until 2020, the P-3 Orions until 2025, the ANZAC frigates until 2030. It doesn’t offer a clue as to what the replacements will be – beyond saying they will be the same or better- or how these replacements can be afforded. At para 5.52, it blandly reports the alarming news that by 2013 the current Fleet Replenishment Ship (ie, the Endeavour.) will no longer comply with international maritime regulations. It will be replaced, the White Paper promises, but it can’t be specific, even though the problem is barely two years away. ‘Possibly’ a more versatile vessel ‘incorporating some sealift capability’ and working in tandem with HMNZS Canterbury will do the trick. Hey, this is only a document providing an outline of our defence plans until 2035. It can’t be expected to say what we will be doing in two years time to address a looming shortfall in our capacity in our capacity to support and supply our overseas deployments.

Similar vagueness surrounds the level of self-defence upgrades that we intend to buy for the ANZAC frigates. In June of last year Defence Minister Wayne Mapp told Jane’s Defence Weekly (not online] just how hard some of these decisions were :

Things like – what do you do about the Endeavour? What do you do about the truck fleet? What are you to do about the ANZAC [frigates] self–defence upgrade – the scale of it in particular? Because that is a major investment, it has to be looked at through the White Paper process. It’s got to be put into context.

Well, the White Paper has come and gone now, and we’re still none the wiser. All we’re told (5.47) is that the self-defence upgrade will ‘address obsolescence’ in the frigates and ‘improve their defensive capability’ – which tells us nothing at all. Significant backdowns have also occurred. National spent the best part of a decade criticizing the decision to buy 105 LAVS for the Army and indicated it would slash them by up to a half on gaining office, Yet the White Paper reveals (5.28) that the LAVS will be cut from 105 to…’around 90.’ Similarly, when it comes to the wider configuration of forces, all the huffing and puffing about the air combat has come to nothing. Now, the Key government accepts (at 1.19-22 and also at 5.58-59) the Army-focused configuration defined by Quigley and put into effect by the Clark government, with the two other services playing an ‘enabling’ and “ supporting’ role.

As always, affordability will determine how we equip and deploy our troops. All very well to exalt the relationship with Australia, but (at 3.13) the review points out the escalating expense of modern weapons systems – with obvious implications ‘for the ability of like-minded countries to remain interoperable.’ The gap between us and Australia in particular, is likely to increase, the White Paper concedes (at 3.38) as Australia continues to invest in ‘high end military capabilities.’ Luckily, it is deemed highly unlikely (3.70) that New Zealand will face a direct military threat in the period up until 2035.

Privatisation. Over the next 5-10 years at least, the White Paper assumes that the extra needs of the defence forces are to be funded mainly by internal cost savings. In line with the Key government’s usual rhetoric, resources are to be shifted from to the front lines, from support staff – magically, without any loss of quality in front line performance, or in the subsequent counselling and care of deployed troops. Where possible, this will be achieved via a process of civilianization of support staff, and by contracting out – which the White Paper optimistically says (6.41) will be cheaper.

Some of the hundreds of millions of dollars in annual savings projected (8.16) by the White Paper look both arbitrary – a suspiciously neat 10% can be shaved off the $150 million cost of training, the report jauntily assumes – and overly optimistic. Especially since $84 million in ‘ quick win’ savings (see 8.10) have already been made. In a poignant paragraph, the armed forces are advised to ‘manage’ the recruitment of good prospects who are failing the literacy and numeracy tests that are currently required. Elsewhere, the possible impact of employing civilians on military career structures and retention is barely addressed. It is simply taken on faith that military personnel will want to move in and out of military service over the course of their career. Contracting out, it concedes in an aside (6.49) will increase the possibility of price gouging by contractors. Not to worry about that, though.

Time will tell ( come the Defence Review in 2015) if this privatization process has saved as much money as the White Paper proposes. Certainly, some of its recommendations will increase the paperwork – the demands for supportive documentation for every single major purchase for instance, and the addition of a specific manager to manage the interface between the Ministry and the NZDF on each purchase, do not look consistent with the drive to prune back bureaucracy. So far, surprisingly little comment has been addressed at the proposals to increase political control of the armed forces. From now on, (9.7) Cabinet will be advised beforehand about – and will be able to veto – the appointments of the heads of the various services. How such politicization will survive a change in government is not discussed.

Such details matter, but it is the wider strategic vision that will concern most New Zealanders about the White Paper. Arguably, New Zealand would be better advised to focus the development of its armed forces on tasks related to our own independent sense of national mission. Making it mandatory that there be a robust UN mandate for the deployment of our troops into foreign wars and peacekeeping missions would be a start. That way, the Clark government kept us safe from the the military risks and adventures by our traditional allies that this White Paper heartily embraces. In particular, any joint operations with our bigger, wealthier, and more gung ho friend across the Tasman will need to be rigorously assessed. Australia can still be our very, very, good friend – but arguably, there are far greater trade, security and diplomatic advantages to be won by New Zealand, through keeping our distance.

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    1. 10 Responses to “On a White Paper that puts us back into the ANZUS club”

    2. By andin on Nov 3, 2010 | Reply

      “there are far greater trade, security and diplomatic advantages to be won by New Zealand, through keeping our distance.”
      Yep

    3. By Joe Blow on Nov 3, 2010 | Reply

      Agreed. We should keep away from the gung-ho tendencies of our big brother, the motherland and superman and remain steadfast to military operations that come under the UN mandate such as the Afghanistan War.

    4. By Robert Miles on Nov 3, 2010 | Reply

      The white paper is just a diplomatic document to impress the Americans. Taken at face value it specifies capital spending on the navy and air force of close to $7 billion over the next 20 years. It is a right wing roundtable, act, foreign affairs document of not disimilar thinking to Dereck Quigleys in the late l990s. I think Qigleys view were misconcieved he was very pro Anzus.
      The proposal that the Orions be replaced by a full capability surveillance,as and inevitable possible surface cruise missile capacity is clear. The suggestion that $2 billion be allocated to such a proposal has clear implications and may give NZ a capability more provocative than F-16s and beyond the ability of NZ govt and officials to control. It would be far more sensible to replace the Anzac frigates with Holland or Zeeland class OPVs for about $200 million each. These Dutch vessels would fill caps inANZAC capability< Australia have too few vessels of a too high tech level for effective Australasian dev and ops.

    5. By Dan on Nov 3, 2010 | Reply

      What’s the point in having an army if disasters like the ChCh quake happen and the army just watches it on the news?

      I propose that half of the NZ military’s focus should be on natural disasters.

    6. By Margaret on Nov 4, 2010 | Reply

      These two sentences alone tell us what the government is thinking.

      (most alarmingly) the document adds that our relationships with ‘like-minded states’ should be ‘made concrete with the sharing of risk in operations around the world.’

      In a poignant paragraph, the armed forces are advised to ‘manage’ the recruitment of good prospects who are failing the literacy and numeracy tests that are currently required.

      America is pulling out of Afghanistan, who is going to replace them, and also remember America needs wars, as NZ is in the business of farming America is in the business of war. If America did not have wars to fight then they would not need all those Southern factories churning out military equipment and arms.

      Can you imagine what their unemployment would be if they had no wars to fight!

      America calls their unemployed the “disposable population” suitable for fighting their wars. Naturally John Key and his government want to Americanise our armed forces.

      Is the Key government going to make our unemployed the “disposable population”.

    7. By Jum on Nov 4, 2010 | Reply

      Dan,
      I’m assuming the ‘natural disaster’ you are talking about would be John Key.

    8. By Jum on Nov 4, 2010 | Reply

      Margaret,

      I’ve also been reading the latest stats on unemployment for men and women. Men’s employment is increasing (albeit slowly) and women’s employment decreasing markedly, which is all according to Key’s conservative plan for reducing women’s individual empowerment and engineering the enmity of men towards women re jobs, etc. Keep the sexes fighting and the government controls the population. What a shame the ladies who fell for his charming 4-faced smile didn’t see the cogs working in his mind; people in NZ don’t matter to him. He thinks they are beneath him. He engineered a win in Helensville, not because he liked the place but because it included ‘Helen’ in the name. With Key it’s all about psychological warfare. He is not an honest pm.

    9. By Jum on Nov 4, 2010 | Reply

      We know that if Key wins the 2011 election it will be too late for New Zealand ever to be in control of its own destiny.

      We already know that by election 2011 Key and his pre-NAct backers will have essentially privatised New Zealanders’ assets (the ones Douglas and Richardson hadn’t already sold off – most of them state monopolies without a profit/shareholder content and once cheaper – through the sneaky PPP’s (Privatising, Privatising, Privatised…).

      Key will follow the nuclear power path without any hope of a safe longterm disposal of waste, which will of course come back on our children’s children.

      The military leaders of every war know that a fifth of their soldier base will be cannon fodder before any progress has been made.
      This country has signed up to a man who is happy for one fifth of young New Zealand military personnel, whether voluntary or drafted,to be slaughtered. He has deliberately engineered a cheap, desperate unemployed workforce to supply this cannon fodder. I hope they are all current NActMU supporters who turned their back on a caring, equality-based New Zealand…

    10. By Denis Tegg on Nov 7, 2010 | Reply

      as you point out the White Paper is long on rhetoric, and short on coherence and detail.

      And there is a huge gaping hole in its analysis of the emerging geo-political landscape. The paper fails to even mention a very serious and imminent threat to global (and NZ’s)security – namely the peaking of global oil production leading to dwindling world oil supplies.

      Both the US and German military have recently documented this threat and warned about it’s grave implications. I have blogged about the rigor of the US and German military’s analysis of this issue, compared to NZ’s military no-mention here…
      http://oilshockhorrorprobe.blogspot.com/2010/11/nz-defence-report-ignores-peak-oil-us.html

    11. By Strength and fitness tips on Apr 4, 2011 | Reply

      Fantastic post, thanks. You made some thought provoking comments.

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